Mark Bailey said reserves established in the northern Victorian water storages during 2023-24 provided a strong foundation for carried over allocation and 2024-25 seasonal determinations.
“Based on estimated carryover volumes from 2023-24, the opening seasonal determinations in the Murray system on July 1 are likely to be about 60 per cent of high-reliability water shares,” Dr Bailey said.
Starting seasonal determinations in the Goulburn and Loddon systems are expected to be around 70 per cent HRWS, while the Campaspe system has enough resource to allocate 100 per cent HRWS on July 1.
“Carryover and catchment conditions will influence early season availability in the Broken and Bullarook systems, which have smaller storages and fewer reserves,” Dr Bailey said.
“Average inflow conditions will allow the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon and Bullarook systems to reach 100 per cent HRWS by mid-August 2024.
“Similar conditions in the Broken system would provide 100 per cent HRWS in mid-October.”
Dr Bailey said average or better inflow conditions were needed for seasonal determinations to low-reliability water shares in the Murray and Goulburn systems during 2024-25.
Average inflow conditions in the Campaspe system should provide LRWS seasonal determinations from mid-August.
“Deductions from spillable water accounts will accompany LRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray and Goulburn systems,” Dr Bailey said.
“The risk of spill at the start of July 2024 is expected to be near 90 per cent in both the Murray and Goulburn systems. The risk of spill in the Campaspe system will be about 70 per cent.”
Dr Bailey said the chances of LRWS seasonal determinations generally improve with continued inflow to storages and early season allocation use.
The 2023-24 risk of spill update will be finalised on Tuesday, June 11.
The first 2024-25 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday, July 1, and will include an updated outlook and assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.
The new irrigation season will open on August 15.
More information about estimated seasonal determinations is available at: https://nvrm.net.au/
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