The 16-year-old boy made a second bid for freedom on Friday after a children's court magistrate denied his first bail application earlier in September as he was an unacceptable risk to the community.
It's alleged he ambushed a woman on August 14 while she was running along a walking path at Jacana in Melbourne's north.
He allegedly threw the jogger to the ground and sexually assaulted her before she was able to escape and seek help from two passers-by.
The boy was arrested two weeks later and charged with offences including rape, stalking, false imprisonment, assault and recklessly causing injury.
He was initially refused bail because the magistrate found he was an unacceptable risk to the community.
A psychologist found the boy did not have mental health or cognitive issues, and there was no reported use of drugs or alcohol.
But his lawyer pushed for the teen to be released on bail on Friday, saying there was now a plan in place to ensure he was not left on his own so the risk to the community was reduced.
He told the children's court the boy's family were willing to supervise him for 24 hours a day and had organised a plan for him to re-engage with school and work.
But the prosecutor said police still had concerns as the boy had previously disengaged with school and there was nothing to say he would not do so again.
"Since it was a random attack, the risk and harm to the community is unacceptable," the prosecutor said.
The prosecutor also pointed to the assessment of Child Protection Services, who did not want the boy released back home due to safety concerns for his female family members.
Youth Justice also found the teen was not suitable for bail because it was still unclear what led to his alleged offending.
But the magistrate determined the risk to the community could be reduced through stringent bail conditions.
They include prohibiting the boy from leaving his home without an adult, an 8pm to 7am curfew and regular judicial monitoring.
The magistrate described the alleged offending as a horrific incident against an innocent member of the community.
But she noted it was the boy's first time in custody and he had no prior convictions or interactions with the police.
The magistrate said detention should always be a last resort, and while the prosecution's case was strong, she was not convinced he would get a significant jail-term.
But she warned the boy this was his only chance.
"Any slip-ups at all, you'll be right back here and will find yourself in custody very quickly," the magistrate said.
The boy is due back at a children's court next week.
1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732)
National Sexual Abuse and Redress Support Service 1800 211 028
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